Some crystal-clear thoughts on the continuous global economic seismic shake-up from Ken Gerbino‘s latest missive: The World Gone Crazy and Your Gold Stocks

“…. The Inflation vs. Deflation debate is a debate between Knowledge and Stupidity. History and Fantasy. Understanding and Confusion. When a stock portfolio goes from $2 million to $1 million this is in fact a “deflated” value but this does not cause a deflation in the economy. Even with $10 trillion of stock market losses it has little effect on the general price level of goods and services in an economy. The crash of 1987 saw $15 trillion of stock and bond losses in the U.S. An historic loss of asset values at the time. Yet inflation in 1988 and 1989 averaged 3.2% and 4.3% respectively. There was no deflation. The same concept is true for real estate. Real Estate losses in 1990-91 were in the trillions and the inflation rates in 1990, 91, 92 averaged 4% annually. There was no deflation. There never is with paper money.”

“… There will be no deflation. If your adviser or broker or newsletter writer ever mentions this word send him this article and wise him/her up. Inflation is here to stay as prices have not gone down in this country in any year for the last 60 years despite the calls of the deflationists. During this time, despite market crashes, horrible recessions, and numerous real estate busts we have had no deflations. Paper money is inflationary and we are going to be flooded with more of it before the bailout of the global financial system is completed.”

“…The Great Lie: For almost 75 years the Fed and the Treasury have promoted the following concept. Inflation is caused by a strong economy. This, of course, is a smokescreen for the truth that all inflations are caused by an increase in money supply. But with this stable datum that a strong economy causes inflation, the powers that be always had something else to blame for inflation. Money managers therefore thinking that if a strong economy causes inflation then a slow economy or a recession will cause less inflation. Therefore they reason “why own gold or the gold stocks”. These were some of the guys selling the gold shares the last 3-4 months. They are so wrong.”

“…Current gold buyers are most likely split between investors that believe a horrible deflation is coming and money will be wiped out so gold should be a good substitute and other investors who correctly understand that trillions of new dollars and foreign currencies are going to flood world economies to bail out the institutions and this will be very inflationary.

Both sides will have great conviction and this $90 move underlines those thoughts. Therefore, with the financial turmoil of this week gold and the quality mining stocks should move much higher with or without the stock market.”

To read this sobering article in its entirety, please click HERE

…κάλλιο αργά;
Επί τέλους άρχισε κάτι να “οσμίζεται” ο ημεδαπός οικονομικός τύπος για την πρόσφατη -αλλά και συνεχιζόμενη- έκρηξη των τιμών ουρανίου (διαβάστε πρόσφατο άρθρο στη ΝΑΥΤΕΜΠΟΡΙΚΗ)
Εδώ και χρόνια τώρα οι ξένοι αναλυτές του τομέα ενέργειας το φωνάζουν σε κάθε κατεύθυνση. Το ουράνιο έφυγε από τα $7/ουγγιά το 2003 για να φθάσει σήμερα στα $135/ουγγιά!
Σχεδόν 20 φορές επάνω μέσα σε τέσσερα μόνο χρόνια. Πού θα φθάσει; Μερικοί μιλάνε για πάνω από τα $500/ουγγιά. Αυτή τη στιγμή εκατοντάδες νέοι πυρηνικοί αντιδραστήρες είναι υπό κατασκευή παγκοσμίως. Αποτελούν την απάντηση στη μόλυνση του περιβάλλοντος από τα κατάλοιπα των κάυσεων υδρογονανθράκων. Μόνη πρώτη ύλη τους είναι το ουράνιο.
Διαβάστε σχετικά στις σελίδες του oikonomika blogμην μου πείτε ότι δεν σας έχω και εγώ προειδοποιήσει έγκαιρα ;-))

China shops for foreign uranium properties as possible domestic shortage looms

The possibility of domestic uranium shortages has the China National Nuclear Corp., the nation’s largest nuclear power plant builder, in discussions with numerous foreign uranium explorationists.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 21 May 2007


China’s largest nuclear power plant builder said it is in discussions with companies in Australia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia because of a potential domestic uranium shortage.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that London-based UraMin (AIM, TSX: UMN) has been negotiating with China National Nuclear Corp. (CNNC). Lui Xuehong, Vice President of the CNNC’s overseas uranium exploration unit, told the Power & Alternative Energy Summit that discussions are also ongoing with companies in Canada, Niger and Algeria.

Liu specifically referred to UraMin’s “good assets in Africa,” which include acquired or pending mineral rights in Namibia, South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Chad and the Central African Republic.

“We will participate in overseas exploration of uranium by buying mining rights of deposits or taking a stake in a particular project,” Liu told the conference.

Shanghai Daily reported that China needs to add two reactors a year to meet its target of generating 4% of its power from nuclear plants by 2020. China National Nuclear plans to spend US$52 billion to build domestic reactors by 2020.

Article from http://www.resourceinvestor.com

CanAlaska Primed for a Big Uranium Discovery in Athabasca

By Andrew K. Burger
12 May 2007 at 09:18 PM GMT-04:00

DAMMAM, Saudi Arabia (ResourceInvestor.com) — With the spot price of uranium rising at exponential rates, uranium miners are flying high following decades of depressed prices and little new mine development or exploration activity. Shares of Denison [TSX:DML; AMEX:DNN] and Energy Metals Corp. [TSX:EMC; NYSE:EMU] jumped 5% last week following rumours that they were on the acquisition radars of Cameco [TSX:CCO; NYSE:CCJ] and France’s Areva, two of the world’s largest uranium miners.

When it comes to high quantities of high-grade and relatively easily accessible uranium ores, Canada’s Athabasca Basin is geologically unique in the world. Encompassing an area of some 100,000 square kilometres in northern Saskatchewan and a small portion in Alberta, the region is the source of approximately 30% of the world’s uranium.

Looking to follow the path blazed by Cameco and Dension, CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. [TSX-V:CVV] may be on the verge of becoming the third major uranium producer in the region. The company on May 7 announced that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a consortium of South Korean companies led by the Hanwha Corp. to negotiate investment terms for the exploration of CanAlaska’s Cree East Project.

Please click HERE to view entire article

Click HERE for the the latest views of noted resources analyst Jay Taylor regarding uranium and his views on CanAlaska Uranium (pdf file -you’ll need Adobe Acrobat).
It should be noted that since the publication of Jay’s comments, the spot price of uranium has risen a further US$7 to US$120 per pound.

Planning for a new nuclear age
As the World Nuclear Association prepares to discuss how to meet the huge surge in demand for nuclear power, the BBC’s Humphrey Hawksley wonders if the so-called “nuclear renaissance” could also prompt a complete re-examination of global nuclear policy…

Read this article HERE

Mineweb: Strategic consulting firm Stratfor suggests the resurgence of U.S. nuclear energy demand may be stalled by a lack of domestic waste repositories.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 16 Apr 2007


Austin, Texas, strategic consulting firm Stratfor suggests that a renewed push for U.S. nuclear energy “could lead to even more global competition for uranium and a boom in nuclear energy investment.”

The biggest stumbling block to domestic nuclear power is the lack of a nuclear storage facility, Stratfor warned in a recently published global market brief.

The proposed Yucca Mountain national repository in Nevada remains stalled, while concerns about terrorism have slowed the Bush Administration’s Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) promoting the reprocessing of nuclear fuel. Meanwhile, the storage of nuclear waste at nuclear facilities has drawn substantial local opposition.

Stratfor’s analysis found that the United States may have to take a second look at nuclear energy “since expected GHG (Global Greenhouse Gases) regulations and requirements for coal plants to use cleaner technology will make coal-power energy more expensive.” Nevertheless, the report suggests that “merely replacing the existing U.S. fleet of nuclear reactors could be worth as much money as all of the planned expansions in France, Russia and China combined.”

“Such a development would not only revolutionize the U.S. domestic nuclear industry but would also lead to expanded nuclear technology research and development worldwide,” Stratfor asserted. “Also U.S. acceptance of nuclear energy will likely lead to a quick increase in nuclear operations in other industrialized countries that have been hesitant to pursue further nuclear activity because of safety concerns.”

“In the long term, geopolitical struggles for uranium supplies could emerge, with Central Asian countries and Russia becoming increasingly important players in world energy markets.”

Stratfor contends that other factors will generate increased support for U.S. nuclear energy including: a younger generation–too young to recall nuclear disasters-concerned about the impacts of climate change; the growing popularity of energy independence with politicians and the general public; and support by some environmentalists for nuclear energy.

Internationally, industrial nations currently dependant on nuclear power now seek to secure uranium supplies in the face of growing global demand, particularly from developing countries such as China and India. While Stratfor acknowledged the possibility of future short-term uranium supply shortages, “the longer trend of rising uranium prices [as much as 57% this year] will not abate.”

“Behind this surge are myriad developments attributable to increasing concern about rising petroleum prices; a belief that nuclear energy development can aid domestic energy security as natural gas and oil supplies from unstable countries increasingly are seen as risky; and current and expected fossil fuel energy sources,” according to Stratfor.

Regulations on fuels emitting GHG will make fossil fuel more expensive compared to nuclear energy, Stratfor claimed.

Nations with abundant supplies of fossil fuels and uranium, such as Australia and Russia, can export uranium, develop their own nuclear industries, or pursue a combination of both. “Australia, which has massive coal supplies, is more likely to develop nuclear energy in response to carbon regulations, rather than out of a desire to bolster its exports of other energy supplies,” Stratfor suggested.

In the U.S., Stratfor cited TXU’s plan to scrap the majority of its planned coal plants and, instead, build two to five new nuclear plants in Texas. “The highly publicized private equity takeover of the energy utility company and its deal with national environmental groups, which dropped their lawsuits against the TXU’s proposals to build 11 coal plants, was a major symbolic turning point,” Stratfor said. “It bolstered environmentalists’ belief that attacking coal expansion is an effective way to force companies to pursue cleaner energies. As coal plants continue to come under attack, nuclear energy will only grow more attractive.”

Stratfor noted that more than 20 proposed U.S. nuclear facilities are now undergoing regulatory review, “and many in the industry and the Bush Administration act as if increased nuclear development is a reality.”

Nonethless, “as long as Yucca Mountain is sidelined, with no immediate solution in sight, the risks involved in developing nuclear facilities facility will prevent a significant boom in the industry,” Stratfor concluded.

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